About our pick

This site calculates what the likely vote totals would be for each party based on today's polling.

The method is simple and straight forward. The provincial average for any party on election day 2006 resulted in a certain number of votes for that party in any given riding -- and a defined ratio of provincial average support to votes in a riding. That ratio is applied to an average of polling results for this election to calculate the number of votes the current support level would result in for a given party. This allows you to see how the votes would split today and who would likely win each riding.

Of course this assumes the quality of candidates and the overall situation in each riding is the same -- which is not always the case. In some ridings the situation changes dramatically, shifting that ridings relationship of votes compared to the provincial average. To account for this the site applies corrections where, for instance, one party is not running a candidate. These corrections are completely transparent and if you don't agree with them they are easy for you to reset for yourself.

This simple but effective math tool make it easy for you to decode what all these polls we see on television likely mean for your riding. As the functionality is expanded over the coming days you will be able to see what the myriad of public polls mean for not only the results in your riding but also for who forms government on October 15th.

We have identified your riding as a swing riding if an NDP, Bloc or Liberal candidate could have won in 2006 if at least one-third of the opposition party supporters had voted for the leading opposition party in that riding. We also point to the ridings where the Green party is competing to win a seat this time. Where strategic voting will have no effect on reducing the chances of a Conservative win, we refrain from a recommendation.

Why have we done this? To make the best possible information available to Canadians so we can stop splitting the vote and achieve government change not climate change. Please check this website often for updates and tell your friends who share our values of putting the environment above partisanship.